Is a Housing Market Crash Coming? Here’s What the Data Really Says
If you’ve scrolled through the news lately, you’ve probably seen plenty of dramatic headlines predicting a housing market crash. They grab attention—but they don’t tell the whole story. When you look at the actual data and expert forecasts, a very different picture emerges. And spoiler alert: it’s not a crash.
Let’s break down what’s really happening in today’s market and what top housing economists expect over the next five years.
Short-Term Fluctuations Are Normal—Not a Red Flag
In some local markets, prices are slowing, flattening, or dipping slightly this year as more homes hit the market. That might feel alarming, but it’s actually a normal response to rising inventory. When buyers have more options, price growth naturally cools.
The key is to zoom out. The broader national outlook is far more stable and much less dramatic than the headlines suggest.
100+ Housing Experts Agree: Prices Will Keep Rising
The latest Home Price Expectations Survey (HPES) from Fannie Mae gathered insights from over 100 leading housing market experts. Their collective forecast? Home prices are expected to continue rising over the next five years, just at a slower—and healthier—pace than the rapid acceleration we’ve seen recently.
Here’s the breakdown of their projections:
- Average forecast: ~3.3% growth per year through 2029
- Optimistic scenario: ~5.0% annual growth
- Pessimistic scenario: ~1.3% annual growth
Do the experts agree on the exact number? Of course not. But here’s what matters: none of them are predicting a major national decline or an outright crash. Every group expects home prices to rise, just more gradually.
Why Experts Don’t Expect a Crash
Even the most conservative projections show rising prices over the next five years—and there are several key reasons why:
1. Foreclosures are historically low
We’re not seeing the distressed-property surge that dragged down prices in the last housing crisis.
2. Lending standards remain strong
Buyers today are more qualified, which helps protect against widespread defaults.
3. Homeowners have record levels of equity
This equity acts as a buffer, preventing large numbers of forced sales that could drive prices downward.
All of these factors contribute to a much more stable housing environment.
What This Means for You
If you’ve been waiting for a big crash before making your move, you might be waiting for a long time. Nationally, the market is positioned for steady, sustainable appreciation, not a dramatic drop.
That said, real estate is local.
Some markets may see flat or slightly declining prices due to increased inventory, while others may appreciate faster because demand still outweighs supply.
Bottom Line
The housing market isn’t on the verge of collapse—it’s settling into a more normal, healthy pattern of long-term growth. If you’re on the fence about buying or selling, now is a great time to get clarity about your local market.
National trends set the tone, but your zip code tells the real story.
Connecting with a knowledgeable local agent can help you understand what these trends mean for your neighborhood and your next steps.